Milwaukee, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS63 KMKX 050252
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
952 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers impacting far southeast Wisconsin during the
  night.

- Dry weather and mild temperatures for the week. Cooler near
  the lake.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 948 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Light rain is impacting far southeast Wisconsin associated with a
surface and midlevel low over southern Indiana. Showers are
currently impacting Racine and Kenosha counties and may shift north
southern Walworth county and the Milwaukee area later tonight as the
low retrogrades slightly. Showers will wane Monday morning as the
vorticity advection shifts northward.

Marquardt

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 252 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

Temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 60s inland from
Lake Michigan in the downsloping side of the Kettle Moraine
under stiff northeasterly winds today. Temperatures have risen
to near 70 degrees across southwestern Wisconsin. Downsloping
off the Kettle Moraine has also allowed for enhanced drying
conditions in the immediate downslope side of the Kettle
Moraine, bringing relative humidity values down to near 30
percent in that region. Gusty northeasterly winds will continue
into this evening, tapering off from west to east during the
late evening to overnight hours.

Also this evening, a final wing of 500 mb PVA around the
northern side of a gradually exiting upper level low centered
over the Ohio Valley will produce a wave of light showers
progressing southeast to northeast across southeastern to east-
central Wisconsin. Isolated showers are possible across the
remainder of southern Wisconsin late tonight into Monday
morning. Light showers will linger across central Wisconsin
into Monday morning before exiting. Northeasterly breezes
continue through Monday. Low clouds associated with the showers
will slowly whittle away Monday afternoon as the upper low
exits eastward. Expect highs in the mid-60s where the cloud deck
evaporates fastest (primarily in southwestern Wisconsin), and
in the mid to upper 50s where the cloud deck lingers through the
mid-afternoon hours. Temperatures near Lake Michigan are
expected to remain around 50 degrees.

Monday night, clouds continue to exit from west to east, allowing
temperatures to fall into the mid 40s. Higher humidity values from
precursory rain may allow for patchy fog to develop across
portions of south-central Wisconsin during the late overnight
hours.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 252 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

A ridge of high pressure moves in on Tuesday, bringing light
winds and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s away from the
immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. A lake breeze will likely
develop during the afternoon hours. High pressure will remain in
place through Wednesday morning, when low pressure deepening
over the Northeast U.S. drags a cold front through southern
Wisconsin during the afternoon hours. An isolated shower or two
are possible across southwestern Wisconsin during the afternoon
hours where higher temperatures in the low 70s and therefore a
bit more instability will develop. High pressure then slides in
from the Hudson Bay area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing
briefly cooler temperatures before plenty of sunlight brings
temperatures back into the 70s Friday into the weekend.
Saturday, a weak shortwave may bring showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours, but confidence is not high (15-20
percent chance).

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 948 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Cloud ceilings are expected to gradually descend in a southeast to
northwest fashion overnight as a band of precipitation currently
over southern Lake MI rolls through. Off and on light rain showers
looking likely at KENW and KRAC (far southeastern WI) over the next
several hours, with chances continuing overnight. Further north,
chances taper to around 30% (perhaps a PROB30 for the Sheboygan
TAF), with similarly low probabilities further inland as the precip
band erodes. Showers move clear of the region by 9-10 AM CDT Monday,
leaving dry weather for the rest of the TAF period.

Expecting southeastern WI terminals (including KENW, KMKE, KJVL, and
KUES) ceilings to fall to 1,000-1,500 ft Fuel-Alt MVFR levels late
overnight into Monday morning, with occasional periods of IFR
possible. Elsewhere, closer to 2,000 ft MVFR and a delayed arrival
(likely after sunrise Monday morning). Ceilings gradually improve to
VFR throughout Monday afternoon. Winds remain northeast.

Sheppard


&&

.MARINE...
Issued 252 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Low pressure will remain mostly stationary over the Ohio Valley
through Wednesday, keeping gusty northeasterly winds in place
through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
gusty northeasterly winds through tonight. Winds will slowly
diminish late tonight into Monday as low pressure fills, with
high pressure across the western Great Lakes area bringing
light winds Monday night through midweek. Wednesday morning, a
cold front will sweep southward across the open waters, bringing
gusty northerly winds to the region throughout the day before
high pressure slides southward into the area Thursday night,
bringing light winds once again.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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